IPCC SSP Scenarios : which temperature in 2100 ?
According to the IPCC SSP scenarios (CMIP6), the global temperature should increase by between +1.4°C and +4.4°C by the end of the century. It depends directly on greenhouse gas emissions, in particular CO2.
New CMIP7 scenarios are being built. It is worth noting that the 1.5°C target without overshoot is no longer reachable and that the most optimistic and the most pessimistic scenarios have been dropped because they were not relevant anymore.
According to the new CMIP7 scenarios, current policies lead to a 2.9°C warming by the end of the century. Those predictions still being preliminary, the following plot shows the CMIP6 predictions.
Since the pre-industrial era, the average temperature in France has increased by 2.2 °C. That is due to the fact that continents heat up faster than oceans and to the vulnerability of the Mediterranean Rim to climate change. The south, in particular the south-east, mountains and the Mediterranean area should be especially impacted.
According to a scientific study published in October 2022 in the review Earth System Dynamics, in a moderate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5) corresponding to a global temperature of +2.7 °C at the end of the century, climate warming in France should reach about +4 °C at that time.
Whatever the scenario, climate warming in France will be higher than the global average.
Hundreds of millions of people have been affected by climate warming. Its intensity is unprecedented in history and its effects (heatwaves, droughts, floods, storms, sea level rise, etc.) will increase within the next decades. But to what extent ?
